Why Some Conejo Valley Homeowners Are Moving Despite Their Low Rate
For the past few years, a low mortgage rate has been the single biggest reason homeowners stayed put — even in homes that no longer fit their lives. That's starting to change, and it's worth understanding why if you've been telling yourself you can't move because of your rate.
The National Picture Is Shifting
Today's average 30-year mortgage rate sits around 6.7%, essentially flat compared to a year ago. That's still a big jump from the 2% to 4% rates many buyers locked in between 2016 and 2021. But something notable has happened nationally: for the first time, there are now more homeowners with mortgage rates above 6% than below 3%. As more people buy or move at today's rates, the "penalty" for giving up an old rate keeps shrinking for the pool of homeowners as a whole.
Industry researchers have started calling this lock-in fatigue — the point where life circumstances outweigh the math of holding onto a low rate. A home that worked three years ago doesn't always work today. Growing families, empty nesters, job changes, and health needs don't pause indefinitely just because rates haven't dropped back to pandemic-era lows.
What's Happening Locally
Conejo Valley data backs this up. Over the past 90 days, 50 homes closed across Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, Newbury Park, Agoura Hills, and Oak Park, with a median closed price of $1,107,000. That's real movement, even with rates where they are.
Part of what's making that move possible is equity. In Thousand Oaks specifically, the median sold price is up 8.59% over the last 36 months. Owners who bought before the market cooled have real, usable equity — often enough to offset a chunk of the higher monthly payment that comes with today's rates, especially if they're not stretching to a much larger loan.
The current sold-to-list ratio of 98.6% also matters here: sellers moving today aren't leaving money on the table by listing. Homes are still closing close to asking price, which makes the "sell high, buy at today's rate" math easier to stomach than it might have been a year or two ago.
Why Homeowners Are Making the Move Anyway
A few reasons come up again and again with clients who decide it's time, even with a rate well below today's average:
- The home no longer fits. Kids who needed a nursery now need a bedroom of their own — or have left for college, and the house feels too big.
- Job or family changes. A relocation, a new commute, or a family member needing to be closer don't wait for rates to drop.
- The equity math works. With meaningful price appreciation over the past few years, many sellers can put a substantial down payment toward the next home, softening the rate difference.
- Waiting has a cost too. Most forecasts show rates stabilizing in the mid-6% range rather than returning to 3% any time soon. For homeowners whose lives have already outgrown their homes, waiting for a rate that may not come back means postponing real life for a hypothetical.
Is This the Right Move for You?
Giving up a low rate is a real financial trade-off, and it isn't the right call for everyone. But if your home doesn't fit your life anymore, it's worth running the actual numbers rather than assuming the math doesn't work. Between today's equity position and where rates are likely to sit for the next year or two, the picture is often better than homeowners expect.
I'm happy to walk through your specific numbers — what your home would likely sell for today, what that equity could do for your next purchase, and what a realistic monthly payment looks like at today's rates.
Wondering if now's the right time to make a move? Let's run your numbers together.
📞 (805) 551-2137
✉️ Kim@KimBlackwellRealtor.com
Local market data reflects Thousand Oaks and Conejo Valley MLS activity as of July/August 2026, sourced via RPR (Realtors Property Resource), a National Association of REALTORS® subsidiary. National mortgage rate data from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending August 6, 2026. Contact me for figures specific to your property and situation.












